The calls for action to do something about global warming have reached a fever pitch.  Cap and Trade, potential EPA regulations, and calls to paint roofs white are front page stories that could very soon affect every American.  The idea is to slow global warming before it becomes a catastrophe- or to blame global warming for current catastrophes.  The predictions of mass extinctions, floods, drought, and famine are very scary indeed.

Meanwhile, a vocal opposition to manmade global warming theory has arisen.  Professors from MIT, Harvard, UAB, UVa, Pasteur Institute, etc.. have put their credentials on the line by publishing research that directly contradicts previous UN IPCC findings.  Senator James Inhofe, who was nearly the lone opponent to cap and trade a few years ago, has been joined by dozens more in the Senate, putting climate change legislation passage very much in doubt.  And some scientists are now predicting a new ice age.

The question is- who is right?  On a topic this important, leaders should investigate both sides of the argument, and manage data collection to

resolve and control the issue.  Wikipedia, Realclimate.com, Climatedepot.com, Climateaudit.com, and the reports from the UN IPCC and the nIPCC provide plenty of information to allow one to come up to speed quickly on this issue.  As of November of 2009, findings are:

1.  CO2 has risen, and temperatures have risen, and sea levels have risen, and arctic ice has melted- none of this is in question;

2. The "hockey stick" graph shown in "An Inconvenient Truth" and initial IPCC reports to show CO2/warming linkage, is errant- it omitted previous warming/cooling periods- none of this is in question;

3. Solar activity drives temperature, temperature affects CO2 uptake, and CO2 levels appear to trail temperature;

4. Urban development has increased temperature readings at weather stations as urban heat zones have expanded, and key data relied on in the UN IPCC reports appears to have been made up (google "Albany climate fraud" for details on this);

5. There is greater statistical correlation between solar activity and temperature than CO2 and temperature (see chart);

6. Sea levels are increasing, oil output has plateaued, and energy costs have risen.

The first challenge is to determine what the important output variables are- what combination of temperature, living standards, energy security, opportunity, etc. do we most care about?  Next- what is our ability to measure those?  Then, what are the potential input variables?  Lastly, what are the relationships between those variables and the output variables?  Once scientists have determined the relationships, then it is just a matter of picking the settings to optimize and control the output variables.

The economic slowdown has helped focus attention on living standards as the primary output variable.  Now, the relationships between this and input variables (energy tax policies, CO2, CO2 output, solar activity, etc. ) are being investigated at great length.  I would not be surprised to see the debate center on the relationship between fossil fuel taxes and living standards- as the data for CO2 appears to show that increasing CO2 is actually beneficial to living standards due to the fertilization effect that atmospheric carbon has on agriculture.  So it would seem cap and trade, pushed by an alliance of big government and big business, should be put on the back burner while additional data is gathered and analyzed. 

Yet, new, potentially unlimited, and hopefully lower cost energy sources are well worth investigating and putting into pilot usage.  And there are issues with ocean acidification, sea level (probably due to earth shrinkage as its core cools), and cloud formation that, with further investigation, could warrant more emissions standards. 

As science continues its primary role of ruling out bad hypothesis- leaving truth behind- we should keep open minds.  Meanwhile, there is no reason to panic.

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